The year has begun in a context of renewed geopolitical tensions and a global economic landscape that continues to evolve. Governments, businesses and individuals are operating in an increasingly complex environment, where decisions taken today may have lasting implications.
In this article, we explore five trends and developments – some not strictly related to finance and investing – that are likely to influence the economic, social and technological outlook for the year ahead.
America turns 250: a political and historical crossroads
The United States will celebrate 250 years of independence in July 2026. The world’s largest economy appears to be approaching another crossroads in its history: whether to continue acting as a multilateral power or to extend the more assertive approach to the defence of its national interests seen over the past 12 months.
The celebrations may be overshadowed by intense political tensions. In November, Americans will vote in the midterm elections, which will effectively serve as a referendum on the divisive presidency of Donald Trump. Historically, the president’s party has often lost ground in the midterms, and early signals suggest the same may happen again.
Polls at the end of 2025 showed Democrats leading Republicans. Many voters – including key groups that supported Trump in 2024 – appear disappointed with his performance. Even among the most ardent supporters of the MAGA (acronym of Make America Great Again) movement, dissatisfaction is growing over issues such as the handling of the Epstein investigation documents and Trump’s perceived closeness to the military, economic, and institutional elites he once claimed to oppose.
Trump will not be on the ballot himself, but the 2026 midterms will represent the first nationwide judgment on his return to power. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House (218 to 213), and all seats are up for election. Since the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt, only twice has the president’s party avoided losing House seats in midterm elections. Trump’s team hopes 2026 will be an exception, riding a wave of patriotism tied to the 250th anniversary celebrations, explicitly framed in MAGA colours.
The administration is pushing its agenda forcefully – from trade tariffs to tighter immigration policies – to energise its base ahead of November. Meanwhile, Democrats are regrouping around social and economic issues such as jobs, inflation, and healthcare, seeking to broaden their appeal despite internal divisions.
The outcome of the midterms will shape the balance of power in Washington for the final two years of Trump’s term: either strengthening his populist-nationalist agenda or putting the brakes on it. A Republican hold or expansion could embolden Trump to further reshape government policy – and perhaps even the Constitution – in his own image. A Democratic victory, by contrast, would likely lead to legislative gridlock and raise the stakes ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
A journey around the Moon (and back)
In 2026, humans will once again travel toward the Moon. More than 50 years have passed since the last time humans ventured beyond low Earth orbit in 1972. That long pause is coming to an end. NASA’s Artemis II mission, scheduled for the first half of the year, will send four astronauts on a journey around the Moon and back. It will be the first crewed mission to reach the lunar vicinity since Apollo 17.
During the 10-day mission, the international crew will test propulsion, life-support, and deep-space communication systems, laying the groundwork for a future lunar landing. Artemis II is essentially a lunar flyby, but its symbolic value is enormous: it demonstrates that human deep-space exploration is truly back, paving the way for Artemis III and even more ambitious goals, such as a human mission to Mars.
In a world of renewed competition among major powers, the mission also highlights growing international cooperation, even as China pursues its own lunar ambitions. Space exploration is increasingly seen as a critical tool for addressing challenges on Earth and as a new frontier for industrial development.
The Ozempic era: a revolution in the pharmaceutical industry
2026 could be the year when “appetite-reducing drugs” become truly mainstream. Ozempic and Wegovy (based on semaglutide), along with Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide), have already helped millions of people lose weight by mimicking hormones that suppress appetite. Now comes the next wave: oral weight-loss pills.
At the beginning of 2026, Novo Nordisk launched a pill version of Wegovy in the United States, soon followed by an oral GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes drug from Eli Lilly.
These medications, which do not require injections, offer greater flexibility and open the door to less invasive use. The starting price – around $149 per month – is significantly lower than that of injectable versions, and insurance companies and public programs are expanding coverage.
As a result, these drugs could move from being niche medical treatments to mass-market products. They are already a commercial phenomenon: Novo Nordisk has become Europe’s most valuable company by market capitalization, and Eli Lilly’s valuation has surpassed $1 trillion. They could also mark a turning point in the global fight against obesity, which affects more than 750 million people worldwide, with potential benefits for reducing related conditions such as type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
The economic implications are vast: lower healthcare costs on one hand, but major disruptions for the food and fitness industries on the other. There are also limitations and side effects to consider, as well as the risk that overly easy prescriptions – even without clear clinical need – could create avoidable health risks. An ethical debate is also emerging: does making weight loss “easy” reinforce unhealthy beauty standards? And is it appropriate to use medication purely for aesthetic reasons?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup: the biggest sporting event ever
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the largest edition in history, expanded from 32 to 48 national teams. It will take place on a colossal scale, across three countries (the United States, Mexico, and Canada) and 16 cities, from Los Angeles to Mexico City. This will be the biggest sporting event ever and a major turning point for the football business.
The tournament is expected to generate enormous economic spillovers. FIFA estimates that it will generate $13 billion in revenue from its tournaments over the 2023–2026 cycle – an all-time record. The United States, which will host the majority of matches, has become a growing economic powerhouse in global football. European football executives have taken note: the US is now the primary growth market. FIFA’s decision to expand the tournament also aims to leverage the scale and enthusiasm of the American market.
The 2026 World Cup will confirm this shift. Ticket demand has already broken previous records, with millions of fans expected to attend matches from Boston to the Azteca Stadium. The 1994 World Cup set an attendance record that still stands, but with twice as many teams and matches, the 2026 edition is likely to shatter it. Interest in football in the US is rising rapidly.
Logistically, the tournament will be a marathon: 104 matches over five weeks, culminating in a final in the United States in July 2026. For host cities, the economic impact is substantial: each city could generate up to $480 million in economic activity, with a total impact of around $17 billion on American GDP.
The race for data sovereignty
As relations between major powers grow more tense, 2026 could see an intensification of a conflict that remains largely invisible to the general public but concerns one of the most critical infrastructures of the modern economy: control over data. This is not just about privacy, but about industrial and geopolitical power.
The challenge is particularly acute for Europe, which over the past 20 years has outsourced much of its economic infrastructure to US-based private cloud platforms. While this has accelerated innovation, it has also created significant dependency. The European Union is now attempting to rebalance the system through a combination of regulation and industrial policy.
A key piece of this effort is the EU’s Data Act, which entered into force in 2025 and becomes fully applicable in 2026. The law is based on a simple principle: data generated by connected devices – cars, industrial machinery, household appliances, sensors – should not be controlled exclusively by technology providers. Users and companies will have the right to access and share that data with third parties, reducing the monopolistic power of large suppliers. At the same time, the Data Act requires cloud providers to make switching between services easier, limiting so-called lock-in – the “technological captivity” that makes changing platforms costly or nearly impossible.
The issue becomes explicitly geopolitical when viewed from across the Atlantic. In the United States, the Cloud Act allows authorities to request access to data managed by companies subject to US jurisdiction, even if the data is physically stored in Europe. This creates a structural tension: a European company may formally comply with EU data protection rules while remaining exposed to foreign legal requests through its technology provider.
Against this backdrop, European industry is beginning to respond. Airbus has announced plans to move some critical applications away from US-based clouds. The challenge is that fully equivalent European alternatives are not always available yet, and Brussels hopes that by encouraging data circulation, a local industry can develop.
Initiatives such as Gaia-X aim to close this gap by creating common standards and a federated ecosystem of interoperable providers, with shared rules on governance, access, and data portability. This strategy is complemented by IRIS², the future European satellite constellation for secure communications. The political message is clear: in a world shaped by conflicts, sanctions, and hybrid warfare, relying entirely on external actors for critical infrastructure is increasingly seen as a strategic risk.
This battle is not uniquely European. India, China, and the United States are all strengthening control over data flows and digital infrastructure, each according to its own model. In 2026, disputes over who can access information, under what conditions, and under which jurisdiction are likely to become even more frequent.
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