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The week in financial markets – 12 August 2016

Monday 8 August

  • German industrial production numbers for June rebounded into positive territory and came in marginally above expectations (+0.8% MoM vs. +0.7% expected; -0.9% previous).
  • French business sentiment data for July ticked up marginally to beat expectations at 98 (vs. 97 expected) whilst the Sentix Eurozone investor confidence indicator for August rose to 4.2 (vs. 3.0 expected; 1.7 previous).

Tuesday 9 August

  • In the US the NFIB small business optimism reading barely budged in July, coming in marginally above expectations (94.6 vs. 94.5 expected). Wholesale inventories grew more than expected in June (+0.3% vs. +0.0% expected).
  • UK’s Industrial production barely grew in June (+0.1% MoM vs. +0.1% expected; -0.6% previous) whilst manufacturing production declined for a second straight month and actually fell by more than expected (-0.3% vs. -0.2% expected).
  • German trade balance number for June saw the surplus increase more than expected (24.9bn vs. 23.0bn expected).

Wednesday 10 August

  • In France there was soft industrial production (-0.8% MoM vs. +0.1% expected) and manufacturing production (-1.2% MoM vs. +0.2% expected) this was an unexpected decline in June.
  • In the US, the June JOLTS survey saw job openings tick up marginally and clock in just shy of expectations (5.624mn vs. 5.675mn expected; 5.514mn previous). The hiring rate and quits rates were essentially the same as in May, at 3.6% (3.5% previous) and 2.0% (2.0% previous) respectively.

Thursday 11 August

  • In Europe we saw the final July inflation numbers for France print in line (-0.4% MoM vs. -0.4% expected) whilst Italy slipped further into deflationary territory (-0.2% YoY vs. -0.1% expected).
  • In the US we saw the initial jobless claims data for the first week of August come in pretty much in line with expectations (266k vs. 265k expected; 267k previous) but still around the multi-decade lows that highlight the tightness in the job market. Import price inflation for July did not fall into negative territory as expected (+0.1% MoM; -0.4% MoM expected) but did slide from a month ago (+0.6% previous).

Friday 12 August

  • China’s industrial production for July showed a YoY growth of 6%, slightly below the expectation of 6.1%.
  • Germany’s Q2 GDP grew by 0.4% from the previous quarter, beating expectations of 0.2%, these have led to a YoY growth of 3.1% ahead of the forecast of 1.5%.
  • In the US, core retail sales for July missed the growth expectation of 0.2% and instead showed a drop of 0.3%. MoM PPI also showed a decline in price level of 0.2% compared to an expected gain of 0.2%.

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