Monday 11 April
- Italian officials and financial institutions have agreed on the terms for a €5bn bailout fund aimed at shoring up the weaker banks through raising capital and unloading bad loans.
- China’s official CPI for March came in below expectations at 2.3% (vs. 2.5% expected).
- Japan’s core machinery order for February showed a smaller MoM decline of -9.2%, compared to the expectation of a 12.4% fall.
Tuesday 12 April
- The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2016 from the previous 3.4% forecast made in January to 3.2%, whilst also mentioning the possibility of the UK leaving the EU causing severe global damage.
- There were mixed market and policy commentaries from several Fed officials, Harker and Kaplan highlighted their conservative stance regarding interest rate changes, whilst San Francisco Fed President Williams expects 2 or 3 rate hikes to be reasonable, assuming there is no surprise in the economic data.
- In Europe, the final revisions for Germany’s March CPI report was confirmed at +0.8% MoM and +0.3% YoY. The inflation number in the UK showed a slightly higher than expected CPI print of +0.4% MoM (vs. +0.3% expected).
- In the US, the import price index came in slightly lower than expected +0.2% MoM (vs. +1.0% expected), whilst the March Monthly Budget Statement revealed a modestly wider than expected deficit ($108bn vs. $104bn expected).
Wednesday 13 April
- In the US headline sales showed a decline of -0.3% MoM in March, this was well below market expectations of +0.1% MoM. The March PPI was also weaker as headline producer prices came in below market at -0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected), with the core of 0.0%.
- The Canadian Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.
- In Europe we saw the Euro area industrial production reading come in a little softer than expected at -0.8% MoM (vs. -0.7% expected), the single largest monthly decline in 18 months. Meanwhile, in France we saw the final March CPI report confirmed at +0.7% MoM which was unchanged on the earlier initial estimate.
- China’s March trade balance came in marginally below expectations at $29.9bn, compared to the forecast of $30.8bn.
Thursday 14 April
- The Euro area core CPI for March showed there were no changes in price level, against a market expectation of a -0.1% drop.
- Australia employment data came in better than expected as 26.1k new jobs were created in March, compared to a consensus of 20k.
- Bank of America and JP Morgan reported quarterly revenues slightly below street expectations, whilst earnings pretty much matched expectations. Wells Fargo actually beat both the revenue and earnings line.
- US inflation came in a touch lower than expected at both the headline (+0.1% MoM vs. +0.2% expected), and core (+0.1% MoM vs. +0.2% expected) which had the effect of knocking down the YoY rates for both to +0.9% and +2.2% respectively.
Friday 15 April
- Chinese GDP came out at 6.7% YoY for the first quarter of 2016, in line with expectations and down from 6.8% of the previous quarter. Industrial production printed well above expectations in March (+6.8% YoY vs. +5.8% expected), along with retail sales (+10.5% YoY vs. +10.4% expected) and fixed asset investment (+10.7% ytd YoY vs. +10.4% expected).
- Industrial production in Japan came out better than expected (-5.2% MoM vs -6.2% expected).
- Industrial production in US came out worse than expected (-0.6% MoM vs -0.1% expected).
|Index||Actual price||Week to date||Month to date||Year to date|
|MSCI Emerging Markets||845.5||3.5||1.0||6.5|
|Treasury yield 10 years||1.75||0.03||-0.02||-0.52|
|Bund yield 10 years||0.13||0.03||-0.03||-0.50|
|Gilt yield 10 years||1.41||0.05||-0.01||-0.55|
|USD vs Sterling||1.419||0.40||-1.22||-3.74|
|Sterling vs Euro||0.796||1.29||-0.49||-7.47|
|USD vs Emerging Markets FX||68.577||1.13||0.04||4.48|