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Financial markets review – 10th June 2016

Monday 06 June

  • Fed Chair Yellen avoided any comments on the timing of next rate hike during her speech today, and commented with a dovish tone that a “further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will probably be appropriate”
  • In the US, labour market conditions index reading for May showed a drop of 1.4pts to -4.8 (vs. -0.8 expected) and as a result touching the lowest level since 2009.

Tuesday 07 June

  • In Asia, China’s trade numbers for May was released which showed a trade surplus of $50bn, approximately $4.5bn higher than that of April. Japan’s final Q1 GDP report was revised up one-tenth as expected to +0.5% qoq, or a quarterly annualized rate of +1.9%.
  • In Europe, Germany’s industrial production for April come in a little better than expected during the month (+0.8% mom vs. +0.7% expected) which has helped lift the YoY rate to +1.2% from +0.3%. The final Q1 GDP report for the Euro area saw growth revised up to +0.6% qoq, keeping the YoY rate unchanged at +1.7%. Meanwhile across the region the final Q1 reading for nonfarm productivity was revised up to -0.6% qoq.

Wednesday 08 June


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  • In the US, the JOLTS job openings report was published yesterday which showed an increase to 5.79m in April (vs. 5.68m expected) from a downwardly revised 5.67m in March. That put the job opening rate at 3.9% from 3.8%, however the data also showed that the hiring rate dipped two tenths to 3.5% which is the lowest level since August 2014. Given this is one of Yellen’s most favoured series the recent spike lower is significant.
  • The only other data of note was out of the UK with a surprisingly bumper industrial production report for April (+2.0% mom vs.0.0% expected), whcih was the actually the largest monthly increase since 2012 and has had the effect of lifting the YoY rate to +1.6% from -0.2% in the month prior. Manufacturing production was also up a robust +2.3% mom during the month (vs. -0.1% expected).

Thursday 09 June

  • Jobless claims in US unexpected fell to 264,000 last week, compare to a market forecast of 270,000.
  • China’s MoM CPI for May showed a greater than expected price drop of -0.5%, compare to the expectation of -0.2%, this has bought the YoY figure to a 2% rise, which is below the 2.3% forecast.
  • In Germany, April trade balance figure came in above expectation at EUR 24bn (vs EUR 23bn).
  • ECB President Draghi yesterday warned about the cost of delaying reforms in Europe. Draghi said that ‘we cannot avoid the fact that, over time, the inherent speed limits resulting from the euro area’s unfavourable demographics will start to bite’ and that the cost from delaying the implementation of reforms is ‘simply too high’.

Friday 10 June

  • Japan’s PPI for May came in line with expectation at 0.2%, and brought YoY PPI to be -4.2%.
  • Germany’s May CPI showed a consistency at 0.3% YoY, in line with the forecast at 0.3%.

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