Monday 14 March
- US import price index reading for February was less deflationary than expected (-0.3% MoM vs. -0.7% expected).
- February CPI reading for Germany +0.4% MoM confirming a leg lower in the YoY rate to 0.0% (from +0.5% in January).
- Italian January industrial production reading was much higher than expected at +1.9% MoM (+0.7% expected)
- Eurozone industrial production (YoY) in Jan greatly exceeds expectation of 1.4%.
Tuesday 15 March
- US retail sales last month (-0.1% MoM vs. -0.2% expected) and core (+0.3% MoM vs. +0.2% expected) were a little better than expected but it was a material downward revision to the January readings. The Atlanta Fed downgraded their Q1 GDP forecast for this year to 1.9% from 2.2% previously on the back of this data.
- Headline PPI last month was in line following a -0.2% MoM decline, while the core was also as expected at +0.1% MoM. The big positive surprise came from this month’s empire manufacturing print which saw a robust 17pt rise to +0.6 (vs. -10.5 expected) and the highest since July 2015.
- Bank of Japan kept the base interest rate unchanged at -0.10%, in line with market expectation.
Wednesday 16 March
- In the UK the Budget was announced for the new fiscal year, UK 2015 GDP size was revised down by £18 billion, whilst the growth rate is down to 2% from 2.4%. The long-term growth rate forecast is reduced to 2.2% (from 2.7%). An unspecified spending cut of £3.5 billion was also annouced.
- The US Federal Reverse lowered their medium term interest rate projection, with 2016 median rate target reduced by 50bps to 0.875%, whilst the 2017 and 2018 median targets are reduced to 1.875% and 3% respectively, which are 50bps and 25bps lower than the projections in December.
- US core inflation in February was up more than expected +0.3% MoM (vs. +0.2% expected) which has helped to nudge the YoY rate to +2.3% the highest in five years.
- US industrial production had a -0.5% MoM decline in February (-0.3% expected) with utilities and mining output both contributing to the slump. Capacity utilisation was down to 76.7% (vs. 76.9% expected)
- Latest US manufacturing production data showed a better than expected +0.2% MoM gain (vs. +0.1% expected).
Thursday 17 March
- The Bank of England kept its base rate unchanged at 0.5%. no change in policy after a unanimous confirmation vote of 9-0.
- The Swiss central bank also decided to keep its base interest rate unchanged at -0.75%.
- US initial jobless claims printed at 265k for last week (vs. 268k expected) which was up a modest 7k on the prior week. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing data came in much stronger than thought at 12.4 vs (-1.7 expected)
- In the UK we saw no change to the ILO unemployment rate at 5.1%. Earnings data was, better than expected with weekly earnings growth excluding bonuses up +2.2% YoY in the three months to January (vs. +2.1% expected).
- In Europe the final revision to the February CPI report for the Euro area was confirmed at -0.2% YoY at the headline, but revised up one-tenth at the core to +0.8% YoY.
Friday 18 March
- China house prices (YoY) in Feb exceeded expectations at 3.6% vs 2.5%.
- German PPI (MoM) in Feb came in short of expectation at -0.5% (vs. -0.2%). The Eurozone labour cost in Q4 (YoY) is also below expectation at 1.3% (vs. 1.5%).
- Canada’s Core Retails Sales was much higher than expected at 1.2% compares to 0.4% whilst CPI (YoY) remains in line with expectation at 1.9%.
|Index||Actual price||Week to date||Month to date||Year to date|
|MSCI Emerging Markets||816.9||2.0||10.3||2.9|
|Treasury yield 10 years||1.87||-0.11||0.14||-0.40|
|Bond yield 10 years||0.21||-0.07||0.10||-0.42|
|Gilt yield 10 years||1.44||-0.14||0.10||-0.52|
|USD vs Sterling||1.449||0.73||4.10||-1.69|
|Sterling vs Euro||0.780||-0.61||0.16||-5.52|
|USD vs Emerging Markets FX||67.748||0.88||4.49||3.22|
Try Moneyfarm for free
Simple, efficient and tailored to your profile. The Moneyfarm investment plan maximises your long-term returns whilst protecting your wealth.
Sign up to MoneyFarm now: get access to your investor profile and discover the portfolio that is right for you, free of charge. Get started